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"Thursdays are insane," complains a studio publicist. "I need, like, five DVRs."

It's a common complaint this fall. Thursday has gone from NBC's decade-old "Must-See TV" to "Must-Tivo TV."

The problem isn't that there's several popular shows on the same night. At least, that's not the only problem. Networks have always clustered their hits on Thursdays, an evening with the highest advertising rates as it helps influence consumer spending going into the weekend (ie. "Which movie do I see?")

The problem this fall is that there are too many trendy shows on Thursdays. In other words, too many shows likely to be watched by the same types of people.

This is subjective, of course. But when you look at what's on the night, you have two of the coolest soaps ("Grey's Anatomy" and "Vampire Diaries"). You have the two arguably hippest crime procedurals — "Fringe" and CBS' "The Mentalist." You have two of the most fashionable comedies, NBC's "The Office" and "30 Rock." And you have the most geek-friendly freshman drama, "FlashForward." Also crowding things is "Survivor," a highly rated show fans tend to watch the night it airs lest they're spoiled the next day.

This doesn't read like a single-night's lineup, it's like a list of Entertainment Weekly cover stories. Very contemporary, wholly or semi-serialized, blog-friendly shows. And there's only so many titles a viewer will watch in a single night. 

Compare to, say, snoozy Tuesday. "NCIS," "Dancing With the Stars," "Biggest Loser," "Hell's Kitchen," "The Good Wife." Well rated shows, well done shows … but if you're having a pool party next week, they're necessarily not at the top of your invite list.

That's why when the DVR data came in for premiere week, it wasn't surprising that a disproportionate number of shows that gained the most from time-shifting were on Thursdays.

"The whole night is very competitive," said Horizon Media analyst John Rash. "Ican't say if there's too many programs, but one reason there's suchhigh DVR use for these shows is, you're right, they're not onlyappealing but they tend to attract a similar audience."

Which brings us to "Fringe." The show is taking an absolute hammering this fall. It's been earning low 2s among adults 18-49, falling dramatically from its first season to rank as the evening's lowest-rated show among the major broadcast networks even as its quality has arguably risen (yes, yes, it had an "American Idol" lead-in for part of last season — the point is Fox choose to protect the drama last season, and choose to expose it to the elements this season, it's the network's decision to do this, so you have to look at what the result is).

"Fringe" is drawing numbers that if it were any other drama … in any other time period … it would have triggered whispers of cancellation. It's only because of the perception that the decline is not the fault of the show that it's still considered safe. The crunch also has "Fringe" being time-shifted at a higher percentage than any other major broadcast show aside from Friday night geek-friendly series "Dollhouse." And "Bones" is nearly right behind it on the chart.

Fox points out each Friday morning the combo of "Bones" and "Fringe" on Thursdays has improved its night vs. last fall. In the case of "Fringe," the time period is up 26%. Last night the network touted a 71% increase vs. the same night last year. What Fox doesn't mention is that last year it aired an episode of "Hole in the Wall" and a repeat of "Kitchen Nightmares" — which is like bragging that your boxing match vs. a kitten went well. And these "Fringe" declines are serious business since it's tougher to get viewers back on a partially serialized show like "Fringe" than on a wholly close-ended show. 

The idea to put "Fringe" here was sound:  "Grey's" and "CSI" and "The Office" are slipping. There's an opportunity to put a new sheriff in town. This move wasn't Fox devaluing "Fringe," this is Fox showing faith in "Fringe." But then ABC and The CW and CBS put their new cool shows on Thursday too. 

So should Fox wave a white flag and move "Fringe" someplace safer?

This post has been sitting on my laptop for a week, getting longer (and longer, and longer) waiting for me to make up my mind on this. I think "Fringe" should stay where it is, but just barely. Once you invade a country, you don't want to retreat. Fox does have a toe hold on the evening, I understand not wanting to let that go. Thursdays are a huge prize. Also, and this is important, Fox has "American Idol," which could help resuscitate the show in the spring if its granted a lead-in again.

If "Fringe" can wait out some more declines from its competitors, it might rise up and give Fox the Thursday hit drama it's always wanted … if its rivals don't crush it first.